9sig Strategy
What is the 9sig Strategy?
The 9sig strategy is a rules-based quarterly investing system designed for
TQQQ — a fund that moves 3× the daily return of the NASDAQ-100 index
(think Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, etc.).
Instead of trying to time the market, 9sig removes emotion entirely: you follow a simple set of
rules once per quarter and let the math do the work.
You start with 60% in TQQQ and 40% in cash, then rebalance every 3 months
using a 9% quarterly growth target.
Backtest Results at a Glance
9sig vs Buy & Hold TQQQ
"Buy & Hold" means investing all $5,000 in TQQQ on day one and never touching it.
| Metric | 9sig Strategy | Buy & Hold TQQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Final Value | $111,497 | $133,020 |
| Total Return | 2130% | 2560% |
| Annual Growth (CAGR) | 36.4% | 38.8% |
| Worst Drawdown | -61% | ~80%+ (2022 crash) |
| Active management required? | Once per quarter | Never |
Performance Over Time
How the Rules Work
Once per quarter you take exactly one action — nothing in between.
Every Quarter — The 9% Target Rule
At the end of each quarter, check how much your TQQQ position has grown or shrunk:
TQQQ grew more than 9%? → Sell some TQQQ and move the extra gains to cash.
TQQQ grew less than 9%? → Use cash to buy more TQQQ to reach 9% growth.
TQQQ went negative? → Still buy more TQQQ to reach the 9% target from last quarter.
Special Rule 1 — "30 Down" (Crash Protection)
When it triggers: TQQQ's price drops 30% or more below its highest price
in the last 2 years.
What changes: Don't sell TQQQ even if it grows more than 9% — let it recover.
Still buy if it's below target. After skipping 2 sell signals, reset the whole portfolio
back to 60/40.
This rule prevented panic selling during the 2022 crash and kept you fully invested
for the 2023 recovery.
Special Rule 2 — "100 Up" (Profit Lock-In)
When it triggers: TQQQ gains 100% or more in a single quarter.
What happens: Immediately reset the entire portfolio back to 60/40.
This triggered in Q2 2020 when TQQQ jumped 105% in one quarter after the COVID crash.
Quarter-by-Quarter Results
| Quarter | TQQQ Price | Q Growth | TQQQ Value | Cash | Total | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2016 | $2.13 | — | $3,000 | $2,000 | $5,000 | Start |
| Jun 2016 | $2.01 | -5.9% | $3,270 | $1,552 | $4,822 | Buy |
| Sep 2016 | $2.68 | 33.5% | $3,564 | $2,353 | $5,917 | Sell |
| Dec 2016 | $2.65 | -1.1% | $3,885 | $1,995 | $5,880 | Buy |
| Mar 2017 | $3.68 | 38.7% | $4,235 | $3,147 | $7,382 | Sell |
| Jun 2017 | $4.07 | 10.7% | $4,616 | $3,220 | $7,835 | Sell |
| Sep 2017 | $4.76 | 17.0% | $5,031 | $3,588 | $8,620 | Sell |
| Dec 2017 | $5.78 | 21.4% | $5,484 | $4,213 | $9,697 | Sell |
| Mar 2018 | $6.00 | 3.7% | $5,978 | $3,925 | $9,903 | Buy |
| Jun 2018 | $7.14 | 19.0% | $6,516 | $4,526 | $11,041 | Sell |
| Sep 2018 | $8.89 | 24.6% | $7,102 | $5,540 | $12,642 | Sell |
| Dec 2018 | $4.63 | -47.9% | $7,741 | $1,496 | $9,238 | Buy |
| Mar 2019 | $7.08 | 53.0% | $11,842 | $1,496 | $13,338 | 30Down Hold |
| Jun 2019 | $7.72 | 9.0% | $8,644 | $5,762 | $14,406 | 30Down Reset |
| Sep 2019 | $7.70 | -0.2% | $9,422 | $4,965 | $14,387 | Buy |
| Dec 2019 | $10.82 | 40.4% | $10,270 | $7,927 | $18,196 | Sell |
| Mar 2020 | $5.96 | -45.0% | $11,194 | $2,385 | $13,579 | Buy |
| Jun 2020 | $12.21 | 105.0% | $15,198 | $10,132 | $25,330 | 100Up Reset |
| Sep 2020 | $16.36 | 34.1% | $16,566 | $13,939 | $30,505 | Sell |
| Dec 2020 | $22.73 | 38.9% | $18,057 | $18,890 | $36,947 | Sell |
| Mar 2021 | $22.82 | 0.4% | $19,682 | $17,336 | $37,018 | Buy |
| Jun 2021 | $30.62 | 34.2% | $21,453 | $22,302 | $43,755 | Sell |
| Sep 2021 | $31.14 | 1.7% | $23,384 | $20,734 | $44,118 | Buy |
| Dec 2021 | $41.58 | 33.5% | $25,489 | $26,469 | $51,957 | Sell |
| Mar 2022 | $29.09 | -30.0% | $27,783 | $16,517 | $44,300 | Buy |
| Jun 2022 | $12.00 | -58.7% | $27,978 | $0 | $27,978 | Buy |
| Sep 2022 | $9.66 | -19.5% | $22,522 | $0 | $22,522 | Buy |
| Dec 2022 | $8.65 | -10.5% | $20,167 | $0 | $20,167 | Buy |
| Mar 2023 | $14.13 | 63.4% | $32,944 | $0 | $32,944 | 30Down Hold |
| Jun 2023 | $20.50 | 45.1% | $28,677 | $19,118 | $47,795 | 30Down Reset |
| Sep 2023 | $17.81 | -13.1% | $31,258 | $12,774 | $44,032 | Buy |
| Dec 2023 | $25.35 | 42.3% | $44,492 | $12,774 | $57,266 | 30Down Hold |
| Mar 2024 | $30.78 | 21.4% | $40,078 | $26,718 | $66,796 | 30Down Reset |
| Jun 2024 | $36.91 | 19.9% | $43,684 | $31,093 | $74,778 | Sell |
| Sep 2024 | $36.24 | -1.8% | $47,616 | $26,374 | $73,990 | Buy |
| Dec 2024 | $39.56 | 9.2% | $51,902 | $26,450 | $78,352 | Sell |
| Mar 2025 | $28.65 | -27.6% | $56,573 | $7,461 | $64,034 | Buy |
| Jun 2025 | $41.50 | 44.9% | $61,664 | $27,743 | $89,407 | Sell |
| Sep 2025 | $51.70 | 24.6% | $67,214 | $37,349 | $104,563 | Sell |
| Dec 2025 | $52.72 | 2.0% | $73,263 | $32,626 | $105,890 | Buy |
| Mar 2026 | $56.76 | 7.7% | $79,857 | $31,640 | $111,497 | Buy |
Important Risks to Understand
- TQQQ is 3× leveraged — it moves 3 times more than the NASDAQ each day, up and down.
- Volatility decay: Over time, daily rebalancing in leveraged ETFs can erode returns in sideways markets.
- The 2022 crash shows the real risk: The portfolio fell over 60% from peak to trough and cash ran out — there was nothing left to buy the dip with.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is a backtest — real results will differ.
- Tax considerations: Frequent quarterly rebalancing may trigger capital gains taxes depending on your country/account type.
9sig Quarter-End Decision Calculator
Enter your current portfolio state and price data. The calculator will tell you exactly what action to take this quarter — Buy, Sell, Hold, or a special rule.